The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is predicted on May 27, almost 4 days upfront of its regular date, June 1.
If realised, it will likely be the primary time since 2010 that the monsoon has arrived over the southern state as early as May 27, as per the onset dates knowledge maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (see field).
In its bulletin on the monsoon onset launched on Friday, the IMD stated, “This year, the onset of the southwest monsoon is likely to be earlier than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of four days on either side.”
On Thursday, the IMD stated that the monsoon’s arrival over the South Andaman Sea was anticipated throughout the subsequent two-three days. In affiliation with the improved cross-equatorial winds, circumstances have gotten beneficial for the advance of the southwest monsoon into the South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and elements of the southeast Bay of Bengal round May 15. The regular date for the arrival over the Andaman Sea is May 21.
| Year | Realised onset date |
| 2021 | June 3 |
| 2020 | June 1 |
| 2019 | June 8 |
| 2018 | May 29 |
| 2017 | May 30 |
| 2016 | June 8 |
| 2015 | June 5 |
| 2014 | June 6 |
| 2013 | June 1 |
| 2012 | June 4 |
| 2011 | June 2 |
| 2010 | May 31 |
